With strong tornadoes a risk in the South, who needs weather models?

A powerful spring storm is coming together from the Plains to the Midwest Tuesday. It is forecast to approach pressure records for March in and around northern Missouri. We know this thanks to the scientific magic of weather models and context of accurate historical weather data — also known as the latest things to be threatened by science dismantlers occupying the White House.

Weather Watch

All the colors. It’s a busy weather map over the central United States today as the first intense low pressure of spring wraps up in the Midwest. A strong tornado threat focuses from northern Louisiana to southwest Alabama through tonight as a blizzard unfolds in and around Iowa and Nebraska. Across western and (oddly) south-central Texas, an extremely critical fire threat is anticipated.

Lightning links

Carolinas await rain as firefighters gain upper hand on fires.

Thousands flee as Japan’s biggest wildfire in decades rages on.

Haboob tears across Southwest with near-zero visibility, shutting down interstates.

Gaylord Mich. NWS bureau reports new record with over 185 inches of snow this year.

Terrible policy Tuesday

Have you ever sat and wondered if maybe the United States should abandon weather modeling, since it’s tiring to be a leader in the field?

News from The Verge on Monday highlighted that the home of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is among buildings on the DOGE list for leases to trash. Axios later confirmed with more detail.

There has previously been news that DOGE was at the largely boring General Services Administration, figuring out how to do widespread damage as quickly as possible, a process that has since yielded results.

What exactly this means for NCEP is somewhat unclear but the massive building houses much of the American computer weather modeling apparatus and would not be easily replaceable. That might be the truly misguided point.

Recall that Project 2025 wanted to dismantle much of NOAA. Despite lies that Trump thought Project 2025 was stupid, when he realized it was poison in the leadup to the election, it’s painfully obvious the framework is now being enacted.

Knowing human sledgehammer Elon Musk and his ilk, they are probably at least partly of the belief that artificial intelligence will take over and there will be no need for weather modeling.

Of course, the DOGE Bros may not fully appreciate that a vast majority of the data which feeds such AI originates with the U.S. government. In a changing climate, old data can be just as useless as no data.

Pulling the plug on resources that may be difficult to reestablish is unwise. There are weather balloon launches (now at risk) plus a vast radar and observational network (now at risk) as just a few additional examples.

Not to mention AI weather forecasting is fed reanalysis from past years using the same proven models that produce forecasts for the future. Numerical weather modeling also outperforms its AI cousins most of the time.

We are now in a place where forecasts for the next handful of days are usually right or pretty close to right, while forecasting to a week or two offers insights on extremes or transitions ahead, and there are even some things to be gleaned months in advance.

This is almost entirely thanks to rapid improvement of numerical weather prediction over the past few decades.

As a daily consumer, I consider it one of the wonders of the modern world. I also know there are options other than those the United States.

In perhaps a preview an apparent geopolitical realignment, the Europeans are arguably the leaders in weather modeling on earth, so they will fill the gap. If we’re very lucky. That assumes what could be massive loss of U.S. weather data doesn’t impact their forecasting systems as well, which it certainly would.

As implored last Friday, call your senator or representative and share thoughts on the wanton decimation of U.S. science. The Capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121. If Washington lines are busy, look into state offices of your senator or representative.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster that connects weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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