New York City on smoke watch as storms barrage Plains states

A bigger severe weather risk may loom early next week.

The main events globally are all rather tame at the moment, at least compared to what this time of year can offer. My focus continues to be on the central United States ahead.

Weather Watch

Broken record plays on. It’ll be another day of severe storms from West Texas to the high plains of Colorado and Kansas. Colorado notched its first tornado of the year Wednesday — another in a slew of landspouts. Scattered flooding is also possible farther east in the Plains today. To start next week, the jet stream dip progresses out of the western U.S., which should spark a more widespread and perhaps significant threat.

New Jersey wildfire grows past 13,000 acres, could be largest in 20 years.

AccuWeather: Wildfire season in US could 'rapidly escalate' amid building heat, drought.

Smokey skies for NYC?

Maybe. The ongoing major wildfire in southern New Jersey’s Pine Barrens is threatening to belch smoke at New York City.

It’s enough of a threat for an air quality alert there, Long Island and other portions of the surrounding area.

Air quality was somewhat degraded already Thursday morning, thanks to dispersed remnants from yesterday’s smoke plume drifting across the region, especially near and just offshore. With a stronger wind out of the south during the day, weather models are stretching a new plume toward the city over time.

High pressure nearly overhead is also pushing some remnants of smoke to the south and west around the Chesapeake Bay, although the weather model image above seems overdone compared to observations.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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