Yet more flooding and tornadoes to end the week

What has been a high impact week of weather will end in the same fashion. Focus remains on the South into portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through Saturday before the torturously meandering storm system finally decides to get a move on.

Weather Watch

New rounds of flooding and tornadoes. Friday’s Level 4 of 5 severe weather threat focuses on Arkansas, where a Level 4 of 4 flood risk is also in place. There’s an elevated tornado threat again Saturday, along with more high-risk flooding potential. On Sunday, the system finally gets moving. It will exit the eastern U.S. by Monday.

Pattern change. No doubt that folks in the severe weather target region are eager for change. It’s coming. High pressure will take control across the western U.S. for much of next week. Records become likely in the Desert Southwest by Tuesday or so — spots like Phoenix could threaten 100. In the east, especially around the Great Lakes into the Northeast, temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees below normal are likely Monday through Wednesday.

Lightning links

Above-average hurricane season predicted as budget cuts and layoffs hit NOAA.

NWS Louisville likely won’t confirm tornadoes for days due to staffing cuts.

Lake Shasta rises 18 feet in March, as Redding area sees abundant rain this water year.

Frontal zone Friday

Large portions of Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky have picked up 4 to 6 inches of rain over recent days. Additional — sometimes heavy — precipitation is on the way through the weekend.

I found the map above particularly interesting, thanks partly to the 700-mile-long southern edge. It shows a rapid drop off from several inches of rain to little or nothing. The zone of heaviest rain is also rather compact. It runs about 150 miles wide, although it will perhaps fill in more to the northwest today.

Both features speak to the fact of how stuck the current pattern is. We can thank the amplified nature and cutoff storm system highlighted at the start the week.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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