What to check out on the horrific Texas flood disaster

Much of the northern hemisphere is moving through the hottest time of year on average over coming weeks. In addition to heat, slow moving storms in moisture-filled air masses will continue to pose flood risks in the days to come.

Weather Watch

Chantal made landfall in South Carolina over the weekend. It came ashore near Litchfield Beach, about 20 miles south of Myrtle Beach, as a 50-mph storm. The storm caused intense rainfall and flooding in North Carolina Sunday, and a heavy rain risk continues with it Monday as remnants head northeast through the Mid-Atlantic.

More rain is forecast for flood-ravaged Texas on Monday. Some could be excessive and cause additional flooding in the Hill Country.

It’s getting hot out there, again. Heat warnings are up for parts of the Desert Southwest, including Phoenix, for highs ranging 110 to 120 through Thursday. Heat advisories are also in effect in the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast.

Lightning links

Air quality on the Fourth was bad, as usual. (Me, Bluesky and WaPo)

Monday morning weather maps

A literal wall of water rushed down the Guadalupe River to the northwest of San Antonio during the pre-dawn Independence Day following several months worth of rain falling in hours.

The unfathomable tallies are still growing, with more than 80 confirmed killed, including dozens of children swept away from summer camp. It is likely the toll will grow past 100 given the number of people still missing, making it one of the worst flood disasters in recent memory and about equivalent to a year’s worth of flood deaths in the United States.

There’s not a lot to be noted on the facts currently known that hasn’t been already. Some of the items that I found the most insightful include:

• Latest on Texas Hill Country flood tragedy. (Alan Gerard, Balanced Weather)

• Meteorologists say the NWS did its job in Texas. (Molly Taft, Wired)

• Children’s camps in Texas were located in areas known to be at high risk of flooding. (Renee Rigdon and Angela Fritz, CNN)

• Making sense of the weather that led to a horrible Texas flooding tragedy. (Matt Lanza, The Eyewall)

• In Texas region prone to catastrophic floods, questions grow about lack of warning. (Paul Cobler, The Texas Tribune)

• As Floods Hit, Key Roles Were Vacant at Weather Service Offices in Texas. (Christopher Flavelle, The New York Times)

• Meteorological deep dive. (Phillippe Papin, Bluesky)

Less than two months ago tornadoes killed dozens in Missouri and Kentucky after it was announced certain NWS offices would only open during the day amid major cuts by the Trump administration. We are now again witness to a horrific incident in the present that also serves as another warning for the future.

This time it happened the same day a bloated handout bill made ICE one of the most well-funded militaries in the world, funding things like concentration camps. At the same moment, there are plans to slash critical weather research that is done for a tiny fraction of the cost while NWS offices across the country are operating short staffed because of personnel cuts.

Recent cuts are probably not directly responsible for the huge toll, but there are critical jobs unfilled in the Weather Service and surely also in other connective tissue along that information and response line. It is also probably only a small preview of what the administration is inviting — perhaps as soon as the months ahead during peak hurricane season.

For those of us who came of age during the 9/11 years, it is difficult to watch every national crisis become a squabble-fest rather than a mobilization around each other and the mission at hand. While both responses can have their ills, and the vast majority of the response is compassionate, a comparative loss of humanity in our country is more apparent than ever during times like these.

Good Americans will stand with those in need despite their political beliefs, where they reside or who they pray to. Given the response so far, including finger pointing and lying from both Texas and federal officials, it’s quite clear the current group in charge cannot be counted on to fulfil their end of the deal.

About

Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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