Two areas of U.S. flooding risk to start the week

Monday features a slowly decaying upper-level low pressure near Kentucky and another shifting eastward along the international border between Arizona and Mexico. They are both responsible for much of the weather of interest to start the work week.

Weather Watch

Rain returns to the Plains. Flooding was a rising concern in parts of New Mexico overnight, and we’re still getting started with this new jet stream dip. It’ll spark intense thunderstorms in the West Texas region Monday, then drag a flood risk east over the next several days. There’s a Level 3 of 4 risk for flooding Tuesday centered over Louisiana, southern Arkansas, east Texas and western Mississippi.

And lingers in the east. Moisture sourced in the Gulf of Mexico and tropics more broadly is wrapping into the slow-moving jet stream dip over the Ohio Valley region and parts of the Northeast are in the way. The heaviest rain today is expected to focus on southern New York, Connecticut and surrounding areas. Several inches could fall through tonight.

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Monday morning weather map

The weather pattern is both stuck and in flux across the Lower 48.

Currently dominated by an omega block, two swirling upper-level lows are close to parked. One is in the deep Southwest and the other near Kentucky. They’ll both slowly move eastward over coming days.

Late in the week, heat builds in the west, where records are possible from California into the intermountain region.

That regime doesn’t seem poised to last long.

There are signs that a pattern favoring central U.S. severe weather could spike again during the mid-month zone. Considering the long-term pattern has also favored such in recent history, it’s probably an okay bet there are more rounds on the way.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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