Tornado outbreak likely in central and southern U.S. Friday through Saturday

U.S. tornado counts currently around 90 are running a bit below average year-to-date, but peak season is just getting started. A multi-day outbreak should begin this afternoon in the Midwest to western Deep South before focusing more squarely on the South on Saturday. A dangerous combo of intense and long-track tornadoes is a decent bet, and there is potential for a sizable twister tally given the storm’s scope.

Weather Watch

Tornado outbreak! We’ve got consecutive high-end tornado days to end the week. The first of two Level 4 of 5 ‘moderate’ risks, Friday’s threat is set to focus on the mid-Mississippi Valley. “A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley,” according to the Storm Prediction Center. Either day could convert to a Level 5 of 5 ‘high’ risk for a localized zone, especially Saturday. A lesser severe storm threat continues Sunday along the East Coast.

Wildfire outbreak? The National Weather Service is also calling for the potential of a wildfire outbreak Friday amid a forecast of widespread gusts around 50 to 70 mph and peak gusts past 80 mph in the Southern Plains. An extremely critical threat runs from the Texas/New Mexico border, through the Texas panhandle, across Oklahoma and into southeast Kansas. Any wildfires in the region will be primed for explosive growth.

Lightning links

Photos of last night’s lunar eclipse.

Heavy rain, some flooding and a tornado sweeps through Southern California.

Extreme heat Friday

Temperatures are set to approach record values for the United States in March again on Friday. Additionally, a zone of daily record highs is probable from far South Texas to around Galveston along the toasty southern edge of the big low pressure developing over the Plains.

The Weather Service forecast is for a high of 103 near the Mexico border, including in and around McAllen. This would be close to the maximum of 104 this week/year in the region.

Weather modeling suggests the potential for higher, with the European topping out around the U.S. March record of 108 and the American GFS near 106.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster that connects weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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