Summerlike conditions overtake Eastern U.S.

We’ve got thunderstorms, widespread warmth, the potential for flooding rain and something to watch in the tropics. It must be (climatological) summer!

Weather Watch

Summer rain. Multiple regions are forecast to see heavy rain in coming days. The focus is on the central U.S., particularly in and around Oklahoma, but other soaked zones are also likely to develop along a frontal system draped into the Northeast. Rounds of severe weather are also a good bet.

First lemon. An area of disturbed weather off the Southeast Coast has enough juice for the National Hurricane Center to monitor it for development. But it only has a 10 percent chance to become a tropical cyclone over the next week. It will probably enhance heavy rain potential right along the coast from Georgia to the Carolinas.

Lightning links

National Weather Service adding around 125 new hires after laying off hundreds.

Italy’s Mt. Etna erupts sending people running.

It’s beginning to look a lot like summer

With a slow-moving upper level low finally getting out of the way in the Northeast U.S., much of the east will see the warmest temperatures of the year so far over coming days.

Since I’ve only hit the pool once in the past two weeks, I’m excited that hot spots will include my backyard in D.C.! A smattering of records for warmth are expected in New York and New England, focused on Wednesday to Thursday.

A sample of maximum temperatures from the NWS through the work week is below:

• Raleigh: 91 degrees

• Hartford: 90 degrees

• NYC, Philly and D.C.: 89 degrees

• Atlanta: 88 degrees

• Boston: 86 degrees

Across the central U.S., a pocket of cold air aloft will keep temperatures from getting too high and also enhance rainfall as noted above. It should be moving east by early next week as warmer air moves into the region.

While some fluctuations in the pattern are probable — there may be another briefer big dip in the jet stream over the Northeast — the best longer-range modeling suggests a summertime pattern taking hold mid-month with high pressure anchored over the south-central and Southwest U.S. This would not end the potential for severe weather, but the risk will be shifting north from recent times, as usual in June.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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