Spring's hottest temperatures on tap in western U.S.

We’ve got some thunderstorms in the eastern U.S. today as a cold front moves off the East Coast into tonight. After that, attention shifts west given scorching temperatures in the forecast. Both features should conspire to help keep May tornadoes to a minimum, for now.

Weather Watch

Building heat west. High pressure is expanding in the western U.S. through Friday, and it offers several days of record heat potential into the weekend. Temperatures up to a seasonal high of 115 are forecast in Death Valley, with readings well into the 80s and 90s northward to Idaho and eventually the northern Plains. It should be a quick shot of summer as a new jet stream dip nudges the heat eastward next week.

Rain in the Southeast. A cold front is pushing off the East Coast on Thursday, delivering some storms to the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. It will also stall out near the northern Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week, as low pressure along it increases rain risks for a big chunk of the Southeast. These slow-moving systems are notoriously hard to predict from range, but it could provide flooding threats over time in places like Georgia and northern Florida.

Lightning links

First storm of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could develop before June.

UK at 'medium' risk of drought this summer.

Smoke from climate-fueled wildfires contributed to thousands of US deaths over 15 years, study says.

Where have all the tornadoes gone?

The United States is in the heart of its average annual peak for tornado activity, yet it has been relatively quiet so far to start May. There’s also nothing significant on the immediate horizon.

Following an active first four months of the year, the break may seem a bit unusual. But it’s arguably more peculiar to see favorable tornado patterns go on endlessly. In reality, a chunk of mid-April was relatively quiet, and it still ended up a top-end month as far as numbers go.

Through the first week of May, about two dozen tornadoes were documented. Although tornadoes have been observed on many days, few were related to anything organized and were more of a sign that we’ve entered into the season where much of the Lower 48 is open for business.

We’re now around 550 twisters on the year, which is still well above average.

Once the short episode of western U.S. heat moves eastward, the door should at least partially re-open to severe weather chances in the central states. Quiet periods can be overpowered by spurts of activity, as tornadoes tend to come in clusters and it only takes a handful of notable days to strongly move the needle.

The Climate Prediction Center expects a return to above average precipitation in much of the region starting in under a week.

About

Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

Find this interesting? Forward it on and tell a friend!