Severe storm threat ahead of next Northeast cool snap

The battle between winter and the oncoming warm season is going strong this week. We open with a strong atmospheric disturbance dragging a new shot of chilly air to the Northeast United States.

Weather Watch

Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic thunderstorms. A Level 2 of 5 risk of severe weather is in place from Louisville to D.C. on Monday. An afternoon storm mode of rotating supercells may offer all severe types — hail, tornadoes, wind damage — before a transition toward more of a broken line into the night once east of the Appalachians.

Evolving pattern. The dip in the jet stream responsible for today’s thunderstorm threat will drop another chilly air mass into the Northeast U.S. for a couple days midweek. That looks like it for now. By the weekend, warm high pressure is in control over the East Coast, and it could mainly stay that way through the rest of the month. If such comes to pass, it will also lead to a marked increase in severe weather potential for the country.

Lightning links

It reached 108 in Rio Grande, Texas on Sunday, the hottest temperature of the year in the country thus far.

Monday morning weather maps

For high elevations, one of the biggest snowstorms of a meager winter in southern New England struck over the weekend. Typical of late-season snow, the deepest pasting occurred on the highest hilltops.

A max snowfall zone focused on the Worcester Hills, where up to 9 inches was reported. Totals upwards of 6-plus inches also came in for parts of the Berkshires into Catskills.

Some totals reported to the National Weather Service include:

• 9 inches in Princeton and Ashburnham, Mass.

• 8.1 inches in Greenville, N.H.

• 7 inches in Pine Hill, N.Y.

• 6 inches in High Point, N.J.

• 1.5 inches in Hartford (Windsor Locks).

• 0.6 inches in Lexington, Mass. (western Boston).

Other than the lake effect snowbelts of New York and the mountains of Vermont, much of the region witnessed a less snowy than usual winter. Widespread deficits of two feet or more are spread across Southern New England in particular.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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