Rounds of flooding ahead for Mississippi and Ohio valleys region

April is picking up where March left off as severe thunderstorm, flooding and fire weather threats ramp back up in the central and southern United States. While tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail are the primary short-term focus, it will increasingly shift to a wet pattern that could turn very problematic over time.

Weather Watch

New round of severe storms. The next low pressure area to toss bad weather at the central and eastern U.S. is winding up over the southern Plains on Tuesday. A strong tornado threat is expected to develop over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon, including in Wichita and around Oklahoma City. It all shifts east to the Mississippi Valley region on Wednesday, with a broad swath at risk for significant severe weather.

Lightning links

Driest March for more than 60 years in England and Wales.

Severe storms cause flooding and destruction on Greek islands.

Torrential rainfall Tuesday

It’s about to rain, and then rain some more, in an area focused on Arkansas to southern Ohio. As a front gets hung up, day after day of flooding risk is expected. The bulk should come Wednesday through the weekend.

The Weather Prediction Center issues outlooks at Level 1 to 4, with 4 being the most likely for flooding through day 5.

Wednesday through Saturday are currently Level 3. It’s quite likely at least a day or two will be upgraded to a Level 4 as details solidify. Level 4 is really bad news — it tends to be issued before large events leading to loss of life and property.

Over at The Eyewall, Meteorologist Matt Lanza has a detailed look at the situation that seems poised to cause big problems. He highlights a zone well positioned to make a run at multi-day rainfall records, including Jonesboro, Ark., to Paducah, Ky. and Evansville, Ind.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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