Rare cyclone targets Réunion Island as pattern reloads across United States

It’s been an active run for tropical cyclones from the western Pacific Ocean to around the coast of Africa. After three spun up at once near Australia earlier in the week, two are now menacing a region focused on Madagascar and nearby islands like Reunion. Both of these storms will impact land as the United States weather pattern reloads heading into March.

Weather Watch

Double trouble. The mountainous tropical island of Reunion is in line for a hit from the powerful Cyclone Garance currently spinning in the Indian Ocean. It is expected to strike in about 24 hours as a Category 2 equivalent storm. If it impacts at hurricane strength, it will be a first for the island since 1989, according to UK’s Met Office. Not far to the west, Cyclone Honde is forecast to scrape southern Madagascar with heavy rain and strong wind at the coast.

Southern California heat. Temperatures should rise into the mid-80s to around 90 from Los Angeles to the San Diego area Thursday. Record highs may fall in L.A. and Burbank, where it is forecast to reach 87 degrees and 85 degrees, respectively. It comes on the heels of 97 degrees in Palm Springs on Wednesday, and several February high temperature records in the region, including 94 degrees for El Centro, Calif.

March lion looms? Rumblings about severe weather are increasing as the beginning of climatological spring arrives March 1. An elevated risk is already in place from the Storm Prediction Center for next Tuesday, running from east Texas to Mississippi. A general severe storm threat is outlined from Dallas to southeast Virginia for Tuesday into Wednesday.

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Thunderstorm Thursday

If weather modeling is on to something, the severe thunderstorm threat next week is just an opening volley.

A weather pattern favoring a dip in the jet stream over the western to central United States, and higher pressure in the east, is one known to go gangbusters with powerful thunderstorms.

Although occasionally less favorable (colder/drier) air could work eastward along with the parent storm systems, the background state should tend to favor the configuration noted above. Beyond specific weather modeling, there are additional — more meteorologically technical — reasons to believe that active times are ahead.

Early in the season there are multiple factors that can easily make or break a severe weather threat. Questions are typically about needed moisture/fuel due to late-winter cold fronts scouring the country and sometimes deeper into the Gulf of Mexico (yeah, you heard me). While those details will need to be worked out in closing, the pattern suggestions, plus La Niña spring climatology, warn that it’s worth keeping both eyes on this going forward.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster that connects weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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