Questions swirl around Melissa, which could become major hurricane

Many storms are eying the Pacific Northwest, as well.

Author

Ian Livingston
October 22, 2025

The weather world continues to monitor Melissa as it meanders the Caribbean. If it manages to not get steered into the northern islands by late this week, we could be looking at another major hurricane while a highest end storm is not out of the question.

Weather watch

Melissa. Where it goes, nobody (completely) knows. Melissa has struggled thus far and will continue to do so until disruptive wind shear relaxes late week. Then — the sky is the limit? There are still a relatively wide range of solutions for the storm, such as the American GFS which brings it into Hispaniola this weekend and the European which slams Cuba with a powerful major hurricane by the middle of next week.

HMON weather model shows a potentially Category 4 or 5 Melissa southwest of Jamaica to start next week. (weatherbell.com)

Atmospheric river ahead. Onshore flow begins to send showers into parts of southwest Canada and Washington state through Thursday, then the main events swing in. Rain, wind and large waves really kick up Friday into the weekend as several low pressure areas with deep rivers of moisture arrive. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph should be widespread along the coast to the Cascades. Persistent storminess will also bring feet of snow to the highest elevations of the Cascades and southward into parts of California. There could be additional waves of precipitation through much of next week.

(Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes)

South Texas heat. Subtropical high pressure is baking Mexico and South Texas. As one example near the Mexico border, McAllen is forecast to flirt with record highs in the mid-90s Thursday through at least next Monday.

(weatherbell.com)

'Sneaker Wave' Claims Life This Past Weekend Along Oregon Coast. (Hayden Marshall and Chris Dolce, The Weather Channel)

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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