'Moderate' risks for severe weather Fri-Sat, plus an extreme wildfire threat

The most substantial of the current series of western United States jet stream dips is punching through the region and will eject eastward out of the Rockies on Friday. As it does so, it’ll set of a chain reaction that leads to explosive surface low-pressure development in the Plains, plus all types of conditions around that low.

Weather Watch

Southern California rain. Over the past two days most of the West Coast has seen some rain fall. The heaviest totals are focused on northern California, where up to 2 to 4 inches has been recorded in higher elevations near the coast and inland. About half an inch to an inch is common from San Francisco to San Diego. Around Los Angeles, where heavy rain briefly focused early Thursday, flooding was reported in and near burn scars from January. Totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected to the Mexico border by the end of Thursday.

Severe storm outbreak. With a big ole low forecast in the central United States Friday and Saturday, the Storm Prediction Center has hoisted Level 4 of 5 moderate risks for the pair. While damaging wind will be the dominant threat as far as coverage goes, both days will also feature strong tornado potential. This may be especially so on Saturday in the climatologically favored Deep South.

Lightning links

Extremely critical fire weather Friday includes Oklahoma City, a large part of Oklahoma, Texas and a sliver of Kansas.

104 reached in Texas again Wednesday, may flirt with U.S. March record Friday.

Storm-raising, witches and the new conspiracist threat to weather research.

Spring tempest Thursday

Low pressure that redevelops east of the Rockies over the central United States on Friday will likely head below 980 millibars, a mark that easily signifies it’s a big deal kind of system. It could test all-time low pressure records for the western high Plains in particular, or monthly records in other areas.

Across the warm sector to the east of low pressure, a large area of favorable conditions for severe weather is apparent, including zones ripe for possible tornado activity, like Illinois in the snapshot here. To the south of the low, a punch of dry and windy air that will drive an extreme wildfire threat Friday is also apparent.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster that connects weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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