Midwest severe weather outbreak to start the work week

The advertised stormy start to this week is on track. Isolated supercells formed in parts of the Plains again over the weekend, including several that dropped tornadoes in Nebraska Sunday. The advance of a jet stream dip will spark a more widespread and higher-end risk on Monday afternoon into evening.

Weather Watch

Severe weather outbreak. It’s been yet another active tornado month going into the final days, and we may close it with an outbreak. A Level 4 of 5 moderate risk for severe thunderstorms, including strong tornadoes, runs from the Upper Midwest to Texas on Monday. The threat will translate further east across the Great Lakes region Tuesday.

Flood threat. The northern end of the cold front will progress eastward more easily than the southern end. That leaves the southern Plains as a target for multiple new rounds of thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for severe thunderstorms, a flood threat is forecast to grow Tuesday through Wednesday.

Lightning links

Area burned by UK wildfires in 2025 already at annual record.

It reached 109 in Texas on Sunday, a new high for the year in the U.S.

Monday morning weather map

For the anniversary of the largest tornado outbreak on record in the United States, the April 2011 Super Outbreak, I posted a brief on peak season events.

It includes some basic data on the top 25 tornado outbreaks for each month, running April through June.

The map here shows annual odds of being in or near a tornado outbreak during those three months. Tornado alley is still the place to be when it comes to regularity.

Check out the whole article.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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