Melissa to rapidly intensify beginning this weekend

This year’s biggest storms have tended to go nuts on the weekends or when I am out of town. Melissa may fit that bill with rapid intensification set to begin this weekend. By Monday we should be looking at a powerful and large hurricane in the Caribbean.

Weather watch

Melissa. Tropical Storm Melissa is a bit weaker than it was yesterday morning — 45 mph sustained — but the transformation to a powerful hurricane is imminent. Over the next day, the center of circulation should get enveloped by storms — from there, it’ll begin a process of rapid intensification that lasts into early next week. The current maximum wind forecast of 145 mph is a solid Category 4 south of Jamaica, where storm surge will be maximized in coming days. From there it is expected to curve around the island and head toward Cuba by midweek.

Southern severe. Oklahoma City metro was targeted by a bunch of hail Thursday night as the first of a string of days of severe weather struck the South. Much of Texas is at risk for severe weather Friday, including the threat of tornadoes. That all shifts southeast on Saturday. Along with the big storms, flooding potential rises around Dallas and Houston.

Coastal storms. As a series of storms impacts the Pacific Northwest, dangerous winds and seas are anticipated Saturday in Oregon, plus parts of Washington and northern California. Heavy rain, mountain snow and inland wind are also on tap. For the eastern U.S., a coastal low is expected to develop early in the work week and threaten places from the Carolinas to New England through midweek.

Lightning links

20 years ago, Hurricane Wilma set the bar for maximum intensity. (Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather)

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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