Melissa to menace Bahamas and Bermuda in final act

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on Wednesday as one of the strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Ocean. Its 185-mph wind was paired with a central pressure of 892 millibars, tying it for the strongest at landfall of any storm in the basin. As expected, little news has emerged from the hardest hit region thus far.

Weather watch

Melissa. The storm was over eastern Cuba early Wednesday morning after making a second landfall overnight with 120 mph wind. Major flooding and significant wind damage has been observed in the region. It has unraveled a good deal since Tuesday but still packs quite a punch. Next up is the Bahamas, where the storm should still be a strong Category 2. It’ll then race past Bermuda by late Thursday night, probably still a hurricane.

Eastern U.S. storm. A storm near the Mississippi River Wednesday morning will shift east through Thursday, then climb northeast into New England by Friday. Strengthening in the process, it will deliver a decent dose of rain to the dry Mid-Atlantic and could even entrain a little moisture from Melissa as it becomes rather powerful by Friday. Along with a general 1 to 2-plus inches of rain, some thunderstorms are also a risk.

Lightning links

Disaster! (Jamaica Observer)

RAVAGED. (Jamaica Gleaner)

Melissa leaves trail of destruction in St James. (Jamaica Observer)

Melissa is a beast among a string of monster Atlantic storms. Scientists explain. (Seth Borenstein, Associated Press)

Mega Melissa

It will take some time to truly comprehend what we just witnessed with Melissa.

For now, we can take a quick look at what the strongest (tied) storm was doing at landfall.

Here’s the Hurricane Center statement as it occurred. Landfall was about 75 miles west of the capital Kingston, on the western end of the island.

“Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).”

Both Dorian in 2019 and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 had 185 mph sustained wind at landfall. The former — the most recent Category 5 landfall before Melissa — hit the Bahamas, while the latter struck the Florida Keys. When it comes to central pressure, Melissa also tied with the Labor Day Hurricane for the strongest storm at landfall. Only Hurricane Allen in 1980 had stronger sustained wind at any point in its life, reaching 190 mph over open water.

It became the 18th storm in the Atlantic to make landfall as a Category 5.

Something of an oddity, Melissa reached land at or near peak intensity. Hurricanes often go through eye wall replacement cycles when mature for some time — a process that temporarily weakens it as a new larger eye wall takes over from the original. Melissa showed some signs at times but never went through the process before landfall.

Before it made landfall, a hurricane hunter dropsonde (atmospheric measuring gadgets dropped from the plane) measured a wind gust of 252 mph at 657 feet above the surface. This is the strongest reading ever observed from this type of equipment.

Additionally, a technique called Dvorak measurement — a way to calculate strength by satellite observation — reached a value of 8.6, per Chris Velden of CIMMS. The prior top value in that was an 8.4 with Hurricane Patricia in the Pacific Ocean, a storm which reached maximum sustained wind of 215 mph.

This all means Melissa was in the ranks of most powerful storms observed in the satellite era and perhaps all time. It was also near the maximum intensity possible for the region it was located.

Melissa is also the third Category 5 of the year, the second most in a season behind 2005.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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