Melissa to form and take aim at something around the Caribbean

And … we’re back. I ended up unexpectedly under the proverbial weather over recent days. Fortunately, there wasn’t a whole lot of actual weather to talk about in my absence.

Weather watch

Tropics. Melissa is expected to form in the Caribbean today and it could become a powerful storm. Where it goes is still rather uncertain. If it develops quickly, it should turn north faster, perhaps running into Hispaniola as soon as Friday. A slower developing storm will be able to drift further west before the turn, putting Cuba and perhaps central America at risk. Few solutions have squarely targeted the Bahamas or the Southeast U.S. but those scenarios are also possible.

Atmospheric river. It’s that time of year again. A gyre near the Gulf of Alaska will whip plenty of moisture at the Pacific Northwest starting late this week. Multiple heavy moisture feeds out of the tropics — often called atmospheric rivers — will begin impacting southwest Canada today with stronger events targeting the U.S. late this week into the weekend. About 2 to 5 inches seems possible in coastal zones and through the Cascades, though details are subject to change given some distance.

Lightning links

EF1 tornado damages home, snaps trees in Arkansas. (Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather)

The Orionid meteor shower is at peak. (American Meteor Society)

No Dog Left Behind: Pets Evacuated From Alaska Floods. (The Weather Channel)

About

Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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