Melissa meanders in Caribbean ahead of rapid intensification this weekend

The waiting game continues with Tropical Storm Melissa and western storminess. Both will take center stage in days ahead. There’s also some severe weather in the South to monitor through the weekend.

Weather watch

Melissa update. Little change to Melissa since Wednesday, still boasting 50 mph sustained wind. The tropical storm continues to sit under disruptive wind shear, which is keeping it from strengthening at the moment. Shear is expected to relax by later Friday with rapid intensification forecast to follow. The Hurricane Center now calls for a Category 4 storm south of Jamaica by early next week. Cuba still appears to be a likely contender for eventual landfall as the storm eventually turns north and northeast next week.

Stormy Northwest. A series of storms is on the way for West Coast, centered on Washington, Oregon, northern California and southwest Canada. The worst of it may hit Vancouver Island in coastal British Columbia, or a bit north, but 2 to 5 inches of rain should be common southward to parts of northern California over the next week. The first round impacts the region Thursday night into Friday and Saturday with heavy rain, strong wind and tumultuous seas. Heavy snow is also coming to the Cascades as well as the Coast Mountains of British Columbia and eventually into the Canadian Rockies, where multiple feet are likely to fall.

Severe weather in South. A string of days with severe weather potential is unfolding in the south-central United States as an upper-level low moves through the region. Thursday’s threat is focused on western Texas, more broadly including portions of New Mexico, Colorado and Oklahoma. All severe weather types are possible, with large hail likely the biggest risk. More storms are expected Friday and Saturday across Texas where a flood risk may grow.

Lightning links

Long-duration lake-effect rain event unfolds across Great Lakes. (Julian Atienza and Brian Donegan, FOX Weather)

On Today's Date: Hurricane Patricia Smashes Global Wind Record. (Jonathan Erdman, The Weather Channel)

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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