May severe could return with a bang this week

Heat and storminess continue to escalate their clash today and much of the rest of the week. A significant severe weather episode is possible Thursday.

Weather Watch

Eastern rain. I woke up to rain thumping my windowsill and it’s going to continue through the day in D.C. and across the Mid-Atlantic region. The heaviest spreads from Virginia today to Southern New England on Wednesday as intensity decreases over time. A widespread 1 to 3 inches is to come near the heart of the heaviest across the Mid-Atlantic.

Central heat. It reached the mid- and upper 90s in the northern tier again Monday, while dozens of records for heat are expected daily the rest of the week. The worst of it compared to normal will be shifting from the northern Plains to Texas and other portions of the South starting midweek. Houston is still forecast to be close to 100, which would be the earliest on record there.

Lightning links

Rainbow Bridge destroyed by Hurricane Helene rebuilt in Western North Carolina.

Central U.S. low

Strong low pressure will develop today through Thursday in the central United States. It starts in the lee of the Rockies around Colorado and moves toward the upper Midwest within 48 hours.

The storm system could have a good deal of juice to work with. Dew points in the 60s to near 70 may push CAPE to around or above 5,000 J/kg in parts of the Midwest on Thursday.

There’s some question as to coverage of storms in the most volatile air mass, but any supercells that form could deliver all hazards including the risk of intense tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the western and central Great Lakes into Indiana and Ohio in a Level 2 of 5 risk. I’d imagine some of that area will be upgraded further in closing.

This storm system will also usher in a new round of western U.S. jet stream dipping, which should mean additional severe weather chances next week in the Plains and elsewhere.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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