Heat builds in the Southwest as wildfire risk expands

Some of the hottest weather of the year is inbound to the Southwest U.S. as high pressure overtakes the region. In the eastern U.S., a pesky flood risk may also prove slow to dissipate. Just like the smoke in the northern tier.

Weather watch

Southwest heat. A heat dome of high pressure is expanding over the Southwest U.S. It’ll bring days of record heat potential to the desert, including cities like Phoenix, and cause the already tenuous wildfire situation to get worse. Thursday’s NWS forecast currently shows a maximum of 125 in Southern California — if that happens, it’ll be the hottest in the country so far this year, besting the current 124 from Death Valley.

Flood risk in the Southeast. A very moist air mass continues to be present over the Southeast U.S. near a stationary front draped across the area. After causing patchy flooding Monday, more is expected Tuesday in Georgia, the western Carolinas and surrounding regions. As much as 5-plus inches may fall in harder hit locations today, with more expected — especially near the coast — through the work week.

Storm Floris. Gusts as high as 130 mph were recorded in the mountains of Scotland as Storm Floris blasted the United Kingdom Monday. In lower elevations, winds up to 80 mph were observed, leading to widespread power outages, ruined travel and a bunch of cows getting loose in a town near Glasgow.

Lightning links

Mysterious boost to Earth's spin will make Aug. 5 one of the shortest days on record. (Jamie Carter, space.com)

Trump says being mean to Israel could cost states disaster aid. (Gabe Whisnant, Newsweek)

Key flash flooding stats from July 2025. (Weather Prediction Center)

Smokey summer

The latest incursion of wildfire smoke into the U.S. from Canada is ongoing. A broad swath had Code Orange or worse air on Monday, including my current backyard in northwestern Connecticut.

Smoke is still widespread Tuesday morning.

The image below shows a lot of clouds with smoke intermixed. You can also see Tropical Storm Dexter well east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The current setup has allowed smoke to sink southward a bit from the Northeast U.S. over the past day. More Code Orange is in the forecast today from the Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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