Flood threat in Southwest U.S. late week into weekend

A trio of storm threats are in the immediate future, for both U.S. coasts and some islands in the Atlantic Ocean. The coldest air of fall so far is also hanging out in North America.

Weather Watch

Western flood risk. Remnants of Priscilla will inject extremely unusual high moisture levels into the Southwest U.S. over coming days. The setup will prompt day-after-day of flood threat — which could reach its peak on Friday. The Weather Service has a Level 3 out of 4 flood risk for a chunk of Arizona that includes Phoenix and Flagstaff to close the work week, with each state of the parched 4-corners region seeing potential for zones of up to 3 to 5 inches of rain.

East Coast storm. Low pressure forming along a front stalled near the Southeast coast will drift north not far offshore Saturday into Sunday and beyond. It’s slated to drop an inch-plus and perhaps much more from the Carolina coasts to Southern New England into early next week. Someone near the coast could pick up half a foot of rain amid strong wind and unfriendly seas.

Jerry! Tropical Storm Jerry is slowly strengthening as it prepares to brush by the Leeward Islands of the northeast Caribbean. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane Friday and ultimately stay to the east of Bermuda.

Lightning links

See These Utah Mountains Go From Fall To Winter In Seconds. (The Weather Channel)

Thunderstorm sparks mysterious 2,000-mile journey for spooked California pup later found in Illinois. (Angeli Gabriel, FOX Weather)

Man charged with starting Palisades fire that killed 12 people. (Joseph Gedon, The Guardian)

Here Are The Winter Storm Names For 2025-26. (Jonathan Belles and Jonathan Erdman, The Weather Channel)

Cold autumn air

It’s another chilly morning, this time including parts of the Northeast.

30s and some 20s remain widespread in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, with some of that also spilling toward the East Coast following the cold front passage there on Wednesday. Saranac Lake in northern New York was down to at least 24 this morning!

Many locations in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will see the coldest of the season so far Thursday night and Friday morning. Yeah, we say that a lot in autumn…

Following lows below freezing in much of New York and New England to start Friday, with similar as far south as the high country of the Virginias and 40s in the big cities south of Boston, we’ll see some moderation in temperatures over the next several days.

About

Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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