Flood risk grows in the Southern Plains

Our storm-causing cold front stretches from the eastern Great Lakes region to west Texas on Tuesday. Severe weather is expected along it yet again. Areas of greatest concern run from Ohio to western New York and southern Oklahoma to northwest Texas. Flooding in the Southern Plains could become a problem through Wednesday.

Weather Watch

Severe weather and flooding. Multiple rounds of storms in Texas and Oklahoma may lead to significant flash flooding Tuesday, including around Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Wichita Falls. Widespread 1-to-3-inch totals with areas of half a foot or more are possible. Rain is from what will become scattered severe thunderstorms in the region. Supercells also deliver large hail and potential for tornadoes to the eastern Great Lakes.

Fire weather. Ahead of the cold front, wind gusts and fire conditions will be elevated today in parts of the Northeast, including where a large fire is still coming under containment in New Jersey. The smoldering blaze has burned more than 15,300 acres as of Monday. With the cold front slowing down and weakening, rain over the next few days will probably be minimal, at best.

Lightning links

UK could see hottest April weather in seven years.

Here we go again

Another slow-moving dip in the jet stream will approach the West Coast late this week into the weekend. For a while, it seemed the isolated to scattered daily severe weather in the Plains would come to a close for a time, but this development suggests any break will be short lived.

It’ll also probably bring above average rain odds to the Southwest U.S. as it works east into next week. Also, a high wind threat during May’s first few days.

This round could end up with less fuel, in the way of moisture, to work with east of the Rockies than the last go. That’s mainly because another low pressure is also expected to reside somewhere in the east or southeastern portion of the country.

Such a configuration — potentially forming a relatively stable omega block — would tend to limit moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. However, in May, moisture finds a way easier than earlier in the season.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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