Erin to march westward as strengthening hurricane this weekend

Strong subtropical high pressures dominate much of the Northern Hemisphere at the moment, helping steer hurricane threats along their edges and drive high heat plus fire risks across a wide range of locations. It’s a well-told tale at this point and it is scheduled to go on through the weekend.

Weather watch

Middle East heat. Brutal, record-breaking heat has recently targeted the Middle East, Europe and parts of Asia. The West Bank/Israel broke a state record for August on Friday for a second straight day, this time topping 50 Celsius at the Ro’i settlement. It maxed out at 123 degrees (50.3 C) there.

Erin update. Erin was on the cusp of reaching hurricane strength at 5 a.m. and the sky is the limit (sort of). It will enter into an environment conducive to rapid intensification this weekend, perhaps with caveats given dry air and organizational issues so far. The storm is currently forecast to peak at 130 mph on Monday morning, which is a low-end Category 4. Hurricane Center forecasters note some valued hurricane models suggest stronger. While likely to miss the Eastern U.S., it will deliver dangerous surf.

Lightning links

‘Extremely worrying’ situation in Spain as 14 major wildfires rage. (Charlie Devereux and Ana Cantero, The Independent)

Dozens dead in flash floods on popular Himalayas pilgrimage route. (Cherylann Mollan and Gabriela Pomeroy, BBC)

La Nina Watch issued while Pacific continues to show ENSO-neutral conditions. (Andrew Wulfeck, Fox Weather)

Sparks fly as plane lands in typhoon winds. (The Weather Channel)

The last time we had a Hurricane Erin, it was on 9/11. (Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather)

Hot week moves to toasty finale

More than 50 million Americans from Nebraska to Florida are under heat advisory Friday as the next upward pulse in high temperatures and humidity heads to peak this weekend.

It’s been one of the hottest stretches of summer in large swaths of the country, including big chunks of California, Oregon and Washington.

Similar can be said in parts of the South, like Texas, and the Northeast across the New York to Maine corridor.

Some relief is ahead beyond this reborn blast of high heat. The extent of problematic temperatures will shrink next week. Many spots in the Great Lakes region to the Northeast should eventually enjoy cooler than normal conditions that could last a bit.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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