Eastern U.S. storm to bring rain and mountain snow

As floodwaters from last week’s rainstorms continue to shift southward on major rivers, a somewhat tranquil stretch is at least minimizing additional concerns for that region. An atmospheric disturbance diving out of Canada into the United States promises a flare of activity in the Northeast quadrant of the Lower 48 as we close out the work week.

Weather Watch

Eastern U.S. low. A dip in the jet stream over the upper Midwest on Wednesday will drop southeast and intensify on its trek toward the East Coast. Like last week, the storm will be cut off from the main flow, so it could stick around a while, and forecast confidence is iffy. Right now, the D.C. region seems like a target for several inches of rain. High elevations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could see a pasty spring snow.

Southwest heat. Phoenix is still on target for several days near and above 100 degrees. The first opportunity comes Wednesday with a forecast high of 98 degrees. Each of the three days following are expected to make it. Dozens of daily records are anticipated in the Western U.S. through the weekend.

Lightning links

See it: Mammoth Cave National Park struck by Kentucky flooding

Wildcard Wednesday

On Tuesday, NOAA confirmed my reporting from last week that March was more than twice as active as usual for tornadoes.

Given the extended onslaught, and staffing issues from cuts by the Trump administration, tornadoes are still being surveyed but numbers are settling enough to take a quick gander.

At least 125-150 tornadoes touched down during the final two days of March and then through the first week of April. More than 100 of these hit in April, pushing the month about two-thirds of the way to the average during its first few days.

The focus of the outbreaks to start the month was Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky, where a frontal zone was hung up much of last week and multiple rounds of storms passed.

An extended break in the active pattern looks to continue through at least mid-month, although some isolated instances of severe weather are possible, including as soon as tomorrow in parts of the South.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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