Destructive California wildfires scorch 500 percent of land average for January

As a forecaster, journalist and certified weather freak (there's a badge, trust me), a big part of my job is analyzing the playing field of global weather and related climate change stories to decide which ones to spend more time on.

In this every-weekday newsletter, I'm going to bring that directly to you.

Wait a few (and check these stories)

“If you don't like the weather in New England, just wait a few minutes.” -Mark Twain

Firestorm ravages Los Angeles region. The two largest fires — Palisades and Eaton — have scorched at least 30,000 acres. As more land burns, death and structure tolls are rising. A 2021 report from CalFire cited January fires that year, which burned 1,171 acres on nonfederal land, as being more than 20 times the monthly average. While a significant portion of the Eaton Fire is within the Angeles National Forest, the raging firestorm is (so far) roughly 500 times the average for January. Palisades and Eaton are also now the state’s record largest for the month.

Major winter storm in the U.S. South. About 25 million people are under a winter storm warning from Dallas to Nashville. Heavy snow is forecast to focus on Arkansas, where around 10 inches is expected near and south of Little Rock. A swath of up to half a foot should stretch from the Red River north of Dallas to the southern Appalachians. South of that, a stripe of ice from freezing rain could run from southwest Texas, through the northern Mid-South to North Carolina. Parts of Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma in particular are at risk for major to extreme impacts.

Is it the polar vortex? It has been quite cold in North America, Europe and Asia lately. After the mid-2010s, nearly every cold outbreak has been blamed on the polar vortex. According to NOAA scientists, it’s not quite that simple.

Thirsty Thursday

Southern California needs a big drink of water.

January fire weather is not entirely unheard of there. It is a top month for Santa Ana wind. Abundant plant growth of wet years and a near total lack of rain recently, combined with a once a decade or rarer windstorm, led the way to disaster. Noted yesterday, the dipole from wet in the north to dry in the south is something to behold.

For the water year, which begins Oct. 1, Los Angeles has picked up 0.03 inches of rain. Average for the period is about 4.25 inches. Both of the last two water years — 2023 (3rd wettest) and 2024 (19th wettest) — were much different.

The question is not if climate change caused the fires but how much climate change enhanced the conditions leading to the fires. While the map above and related datapoints don’t answer the question on their own, they serve as a reminder how a warming world is expected to snap back and forth between extremes more frequently. Drought is making a return, too.

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