Daily flood threat in the south-central U.S. as smoke lingers

Much of northern Oklahoma and parts of southern Kansas are under flood watch with additional waves of heavy rain and storms imminent. A percolating severe weather risk will also keep the potential going for the year’s above average tornado count to rise.

Weather Watch

Flood threat. A front stuck in the south-central United States will dump rain daily as it meanders. Over coming days, much of Oklahoma and north Texas is now forecast to see more than 4 inches of rain, with zones up to 6-plus inches. More severe, weather, too — Thursday brings an elevated tornado threat to the Texas panhandle.

Barbara? Another tropical storm may be on the way off the coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center gives the latest disturbance an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it moves west-northwest offshore.

Lingering smoke. Although some rain has fallen on the wildfires in Canada, smoke is still a problem near and far. This morning, Chicago was seeing code red air quality, and one of the worst values among big cities in the world. Fires could be seen spewing more smoke on Wednesday behind a passing low-pressure area.

Lightning links

Western Australia sees record warmth, amid record chill east.

Tornado count in 2025 still above normal

Climatological spring is in the rearview, so peak tornado season is also beginning to wane. June is the second most active month on average for tornadoes, but sizable events are typically harder to come by than earlier in the year. Regardless, it’s been a notable one — we could use a break.

Boosted by late month outbreaks, May appears to have eked out close to average tornado numbers — Wikipedians have 264 cataloged — after a slow start.

Tornadoes were observed on all but seven days as the back half of the month consistently produced events with a dozen to three dozen tornadoes, including several EF4s.

The month did have more of a bend eastward than typical, which may be in part thanks to coming out of a La Nina pattern over winter which tends to favor such among other factors.

With about 850 twisters confirmed, the year continues to run above average to date as it has for months. Tallies should grow somewhat in days ahead, and June is known for producing tornadoes out of little.

A pronounced dip in the jet stream in the west has been hinted at here and there in longer range modeling. It has so far failed to materialize or has been pushed back in time.

There’s still that hint mid-month. And also increasing signals of a summertime pattern setting in. In that case, we might be looking more at a ring of fire situation — large storm complexes more common than tornadoes — but that’s too far out to prognosticate with any real certainty.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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