Category 5 Hurricane Melissa to devastate Jamaica

Melissa finally did the thing. By that, I mean it rapidly intensified over the weekend. Last we checked in on Friday morning the storm had sustained wind of 45 mph. Just three days later it has sustained wind of 160 mph and a central pressure of 913 millibars, and much of that intensity was gained over the past two days. Some additional strengthening is possible, although it’s probably not far off its peak intensity.

Weather watch

Melissa. As of the 8 a.m. advisory from the Hurricane Center, Category 5 Melissa was almost exactly 100 miles south of Treasure Beach in western Jamaica. Tropical storm force winds have overtaken most of the island. The center is forecast to come ashore on Tuesday morning just southeast of there, likely putting Treasure Beach and surrounding spots in some of the worst wind and squalls from the storm. From there it will head toward Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually Bermuda.

Third Category 5 this year. Hurricane season 2025 is now only behind the historic 2005 season when it comes to Category 5 storms in the Atlantic. That year there were four. Melissa joins a list with Erin and Humberto, both of which reached 160 mph sustained over the open Atlantic. It’s also the 13th Category 5 over the past decade, which is well ahead of the previous 10-year record — ending in 2007 — of nine. In a warming world, the strongest storms are becoming more frequent.

Lightning links

Tracking Melissa: Where is the storm now? (The Weather Channel)

More on Melissa

The highest population of Jamaica is around Kingston, roughly 60 miles east of where Melissa is forecast to come ashore. This is among the few fortunate things with the storm.

While the immediate coast east of expected landfall is relatively sparsely populated, the fishing village of Alligator Pond — home to about 1,500 — could face some of the worst of the deadly storm surge with the storm. While Jamaica is not as prone to terrible storm surge as other locations in the region, a rise in water of 9 to 13 feet is anticipated to the right of landfall.

Further inland, the city of Mandeville could also be in the crosshairs. If the storm arrives as a Category 4+ inland, as expected, wind damage will be extraordinary, including toppled houses and trees stripped of leaves.

Rainfall totals will also be extreme across Jamaica and into eastern Cuba. Both regions are hilly to mountainous. In eastern Jamaica, elevations rise past 7,400 feet at the highest point. Even some distance from the center, these mountains will help wring out huge amounts of water. Widespread numbers of 1-3 feet are a risk, with the highest mountains probably topping 40 inches from the storm.

Hurricane Charlie in 1951 is the benchmark for casualties, a majority of which came from inland flooding and landslides. That storm killed more than 150 and left 10,000 homeless in its aftermath. It was a Category 3 with winds around 125 mph.

Similarly, Gilbert in 1988 hit as a Category 3 and is considered the strongest at landfall for the island prior to Melissa.

Unless something wild happens over the next day or so, Melissa should hit at least as a Category 4, the first of such extreme intensity for Jamaica.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eye wall replacement and/or interaction with the higher terrain even before the storm comes ashore.

After crossing the island, the storm will likely remain quite powerful, perhaps restrengthening some over the very toasty water in the region. It is expected to traverse eastern Cuba as a Category 3.

From there it will pass over the eastern Bahamas and head toward Bermuda, where it could still be a hurricane despite beginning to lose tropical characteristics as it accelerates into the North Atlantic.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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