Bermuda in the crosshairs of tropical trouble

While focus is on the tropics, especially from Bermuda, there are other bubblings of storminess here and there as well. For instance, with fall taking over, I’m increasingly dreaming of mountain snowfall — there’s some of that on the way! Also, we can take a gander at a big storm forecast to blast the United Kingdom.

Weather watch

Target: Bermuda. A tiny target in the central Atlantic, Bermuda is in for several days of stormy conditions. Outer bands from Humberto impact the nation through Wednesday, bringing waves of heavy rain, isolated flooding, potential for waterspouts and dangerous beach conditions. Imelda looks to make a more direct beeline to the country late Wednesday into Thursday, with hurricane watches now up as the storm is forecast to pass by with sustained winds of 90-100 mph.

Records on the edge. Heat engines at heart, hurricanes are typically overtopped by a stout area of high pressure, and this tends to deliver unusually toasty temperatures just outside the storm periphery. There are some record highs in play Tuesday for South Florida (90s) and along the Northeast coast (near 80).

Snow! Accumulating snow is in the cards over coming days across the mountains of southwestern British Columbia and also dotting the highest peaks into U.S. portion of the Pacific Northwest. Mount Rainier is anticipating as much as 1-2 feet from periods of heavy snow through Friday. Several inches are also likely for Mount Shasta in northern California.

Lightning links

At least 1 dead in rip currents churned up storms along US East Coast. (Julian Atienza, FOX Weather)

How Imelda’s Forecast Changed From A Southeast Strike To Sailing Out To Sea. (Caitlin Kaiser, The Weather Channel)

End of monsoon to bring warmer, drier weather to the southwest US. (Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather)

Eyes on Europe as big storm looms

Although the nice weather for my recent trip to Europe was a blessing, I can’t help but have a small pang of weather geek sadness upon checking the overnight European weather model. It shows a sprawling ~955 millibar low pressure right around where I was hanging out a few days ago to end this week.

In the tropics, such a pressure would be equivalent of a hefty hurricane, although that doesn’t mean the effects will be the same here.

There is word on the street that tropical remnants could bring significant storminess to the UK up ahead. Annotated images here help tell a fuller tale.

Upper-level activity tied to Humberto and Imelda is still over the central Atlantic mid- and late week as a curl in the jet stream — our incipient storm — develops then approaches the UK. A little mid-level vorticity peeled off from Humberto is entrained along with remnant surface vorticity scooting along on the jet stream. The bulk of its former self aloft hangs back well to the west, per the best global weather modeling.

The most powerful low at this point, late Friday or early Saturday, appears mainly to be a product of phasing in the polar jet stream. And it’s a sight as shown below. In addition to the European model here, the American GFS, Canadian GEM and other similar guidance also indicate a potent low in the region.

Should the guidance hold, it seems extremely likely this will become a named storm by the UK Met Office. The first name on the list for the oncoming winter season is Amy.

Editing note: I may still be a little rusty given vacation. A surface analysis suggests that indeed a good portion is from Humberto, whether or not the upper-level energy is fully entrained. I have made some edits to the original above and reminded myself to look at all the maps. Weather often reminds one to keep it humble.

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Weekday morning newsletter by a journalist/forecaster. Connecting weather and climate change dots while occasionally stirring the pot.

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